There’s a lot going on this morning, not only with Erika but also with another storm – in the Pacific – that could impact Hawaii next week.
Actually, my thoughts on Erika will be fairly short and to the point.
Radar image from San Juan, PR showing a few outer bands of Erika moving through. The rain will increase in coverage and intensity as the day wears on
Right now, the storm is moving through the northeast Caribbean where the rain it is bringing is badly needed. Take a look at the radar from San Juan, PR. Not much rain yet but the bands from Erika will begin to move through as the day progresses. A few inches could fall and in fairly short order, thus flooding could be a concern, especially in higher terrain areas.
I think it all comes down to the next 48 hours, maybe less. Right now, Erika is doing well for itself despite moderate shearing winds that are continuing to displace the convection away from the low level center. The pressure has been up and down a few millibars overnight with a slight uptick in wind speed.
Wind shear map from the University of Wisconsin CIMSS site. I have added some annotation to help define the track that Erika needs to live through before it can strengthen significantly
Before we even begin to think about where Erika might end up, we need to see what happens over the next two days. I believe that if Erika can get through the strong band of upper level winds that appears to be waiting just to its west, that we will in fact have quite a hurricane to deal with somewhere along the Southeast coast. Keep in mind, it’s all about the impact – not just where the eye goes. Erika is likely to kick up some serious surf and cause a great deal of anxiety for people from Florida up through the Carolinas. That’s assuming the storm survives this one last gauntlet of strong upper level winds.
Looking at the graphic, you can clearly see where Erika is in relation to the stronger upper level winds that are blowing across the tropical storm. I have highlighted in red the area that I think Erika has to navigate and if it does so intact, it’s open for as much intensification as the environment will allow. The models generally see this, though some waffle back and forth from run to run. The end result is that a majority of the intensity guidance suggests that Erika will survive the shear and come out the other side ready to strengthen and do so quickly as it approaches the Southeast coast.
So let’s see what happens over the next 36 to 48 hours and go from there. I’ll certainly post updates between now and then but there’s no use worrying about where Erika will end up until we have a sure thing that there will be much of an Erika at all. If the shear kills off the storm, then the rest of the story is moot. The clock is ticking, we’ll see what happens over the next day or two.
TS Ignacio track map in the east Pacific showing a course towards Hawaii early next week
Meanwhile, newly upgraded hurricane Ignacio could impact Hawaii next week. It is tracking WNW right now. The forecast calls for it to become a major hurricane over the warmer-than-usual waters of the northern east Pacific. Hawaii has had a few darts thrown their way this season, so to speak, with everything missing for the most part. Will Ignacio follow suit or break the streak and bring hurricane conditions to the islands? As usual, it’s too soon to know for sure.
Most of the model guidance suggests, at least at this point, that the hurricane will track just to the north of Hawaii. This will be something to watch closely and interests in the region should be doing so.
I will have another blog post here this evening but before that, I will post a video discussion early this afternoon concerning Erika and Ignacio. There will be a lot to cover, that is for sure. The tropics are busy, even in a year when the Atlantic was supposed to be “quiet”. Right now, it is anything but.
M. Sudduth 9AM ET August 27
The post One last hurdle for Erika, if it makes it, Southeast coast beware appeared first on .