NHC map showing remnants of Erika (orange) and invest area 99L (red)
There is a lot to talk about today. I do realize it is also the 10th anniversary of Katrina’s historic landfall but instead of piling on more about that right now, let’s save it for another time, another in-depth blog post perhaps. For now, let’s focus on the current goings on.
Erika caused quite an uproar this past week with model mayhem galore. One day it looked like Florida would see an end to the hurricane drought. The next day, look out Carolinas! It just went on and on and yet Erika completely failed to behave as the models suggested – most of them anyway.
Now, to be clear, Erika had major consequences for some locations in the Caribbean Sea. Dominica has had terrible loss of life and an overwhelming loss of infrastructure. All of this due to one seemingly benign effect: rain. Over the centuries, I bet freshwater flooding has led to more misery than any other hazard from tropical cyclones. Storm surge poses the greatest risk in any one vulnerable location but flooding from too much rain seems to rear its ugly head one time too many as of late.
Erika is now just a remnant low moving across the southern portion of the Florida Straits. I do not see anything that leads me to believe that it has a chance of any significant comeback. While we need to certainly monitor its progress in case of any surprise endings, I wouldn’t worry too much about the left-overs becoming more than a nuisance – though it might bring heavy rain which of course has its own potential for causing issues.
Invest area 99L just off the coast of Africa
Meanwhile, another strong tropical wave and associated low pressure system just off the coast of Africa is likely to be our next named storm: Fred. However, it won’t last very long. The favorable environment that it is currently a part of will be short-lived. It will be interesting to see the effects on the Cape Verde Islands as it looks like the system will pass over that location while intensifying some. I fully expect it to die out over the open eastern Atlantic some time next week.
One thing to note – if this system (99L) does in fact become a tropical storm or even a hurricane, it will be the third in a row to come from the so-called MDR or Main Development Region. I bring this up because this alley-way was supposed to be almost completely dead this year due to hostile conditions. I believe the warmer than normal water that has developed across much of the MDR has changed things somewhat. But, the upper level winds are still just too strong and as we saw with Danny and Erika, we may have MDR development but it will be tough for it to survive or thrive very long.
In the Pacific, we have three incredible hurricanes going on at once: Kilo, Ignacio and Jimena. None pose a substantial threat to land but all three are a testament to the remarkably warm water of the northern Pacific Ocean. This really has little to do with the El Nino itself, just a much warmer Pacific, away from the Equator, than we are used to seeing.
Hurricane Ignacio forecast track map from the CPHC
Hurricane Ignacio could bring tropical storm conditions to parts of Hawaii and as such, the Central Pacific Hurricane Center has posted a tropical storm watch for the Big Island. As long as Ignacio remains on track, the overall impact will be minimal to the area.
It has been a busy couple of weeks and it looks to remain that way going forward. So far, the United States has had little to deal with from the tropics. As we saw 10 years ago, that can change and have long-lasting effects that linger for generations. As August draws to a close, we know that September is traditionally the peak month for hurricane activity. We’ve been fortunate so far in 2015 (except for Dominica) and we can hope to have a quiet second half ahead of us. Only time will tell.
I’ll have more here tomorrow.
M. Sudduth 5:10 PM ET August 29
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